Trump Says Jobs Are Booming for U.S.-Born Workers. The Data Shows the Opposite.
A deep dive into the statistical problems with the administration's employment claims, with data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and expert analysis.
FACT CHECK • LABOR MARKET ANALYSIS
Sources: BLS Table A-7, FRED, Peterson Institute • January 3, 2026
The Bottom Line
The Claim
"100% of all net job creation has gone to American-born citizens" — President Trump, December 2025
The Reality
- ✗ Native-born unemployment rose from 3.9% to 4.3% (Nov 2024 → Nov 2025)
- ✗ Foreign-born unemployment fell from 4.5% to 4.4% over the same period
- ✗ The "2.7 million jobs" claim is a statistical artifact—over half (1.2M) is from an annual population adjustment
- ✗ The establishment survey shows only 499,000 total jobs added Jan-Nov 2025
What Experts Say
Jed Kolko, Peterson Institute for International Economics:
"Using these employment levels to claim job gains is 'a multiple-count data felony.' The Census Bureau and BLS explicitly warn against this use of the data."
Unemployment Rates: Native vs. Foreign Born
The unemployment rate—not employment levels—is the reliable measure for comparing labor market outcomes between native-born and foreign-born workers. Unlike employment counts, it is not distorted by population control adjustments.
Key Observation
Since January 2025, native-born unemployment has been higher than or equal to foreign-born unemployment in most months—the opposite of what Trump's claims suggest. Native-born workers are faring worse, not better, under the current policies.
Source: BLS Table A-7, Employment status of the civilian population by nativity (not seasonally adjusted)
The "2.7 Million Jobs" Illusion
The administration's claims rest on a fundamental misuse of Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Here's why the numbers are misleading:
Problem #1: Population Controls
Every January, the CPS adjusts to new Census population estimates. In January 2025, this adjustment alone added 1.2 million to the native-born employment count—before anyone actually got a job. This is why BLS warns against comparing data across years.
Problem #2: The Zero-Sum Trap
Native-born + foreign-born populations must equal the predetermined Census total. If fewer immigrants respond to surveys (possibly due to fear of ICE), the native-born count automatically rises to meet the preset total—even if no jobs were created.
Problem #3: Two Surveys Tell Different Stories
The household survey (CPS) shows 1.7 million total jobs added Jan-Nov 2025. But the establishment survey (CES)—which counts actual payrolls—shows only 499,000 jobs. A discrepancy of over 1 million jobs suggests serious measurement issues.
Claimed vs. Actual Job Growth (thousands)
The "2.7 million" claim is mostly statistical noise. Over 1.2 million comes from the annual population adjustment; the real economy added only ~500K jobs.
What the Experts Say
"The apparent boom in native-born employment is just a statistical artifact, arising from arcane rules about how the data are constructed and population levels are determined."
— Jed Kolko, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics (former Under Secretary for Economic Affairs, Commerce Dept.)"That's the incorrect analysis of the government data that has been plaguing us all year."
— Stan Veuger, Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute (conservative think tank)"There's no evidence that the employment situation has improved over the last year for the U.S.-born population. If you look at the unemployment rate, which is actually what the survey is designed to estimate, it has gone up."
— David Bier, Director of Immigration Studies, Cato Institute (libertarian think tank)"The unemployment rate has been rising for both native-born and foreign-born adults."
— Dean Baker, Senior Economist, Center for Economic and Policy ResearchBipartisan Agreement
Notably, economists across the political spectrum—from the conservative American Enterprise Institute to the left-leaning Center for Economic and Policy Research to the libertarian Cato Institute—all agree: the administration's claims misuse the data in ways that BLS and Census explicitly warn against.
Sources & Methodology
Primary Government Sources
- BLS Table A-7: Employment status by nativity (monthly)
- BLS Employment Situation Report (November 2025)
- FRED Series LNU04073413: Native-born unemployment rate
- FRED Series LNU04073395: Foreign-born unemployment rate
- Census Bureau population controls documentation
Expert Analysis
- Kolko, Jed. "No, Native-Born Employment Has Not Soared." Substack, August 2025
- FactCheck.org: "Trump's Native-Born Job-Creation Claim Based on Questionable Figures" (Dec 2025)
- Washington Post: "Trump says jobs market is booming for U.S.-born. Here's what data really shows." (Jan 2, 2026)
- CEPR: "Unemployment Rises to 4.6 Percent" analysis (Dec 2025)
Key Data Points
- Native-born unemployment rate: 4.3% (Nov 2025) vs. 3.9% (Nov 2024)
- Foreign-born unemployment rate: 4.4% (Nov 2025) vs. 4.5% (Nov 2024)
- Overall unemployment rate: 4.6% (Nov 2025) vs. 4.2% (Nov 2024)
- January 2025 population control adjustment: +1.2M native-born employed
- Total jobs added per CES (Jan-Nov 2025): ~499,000
- Deportations in 2025: ~579,000 (per Tom Homan, Dec 7)
Methodological Notes
Unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted per BLS Table A-7. Year-over-year comparisons (same month, different year) avoid seasonal adjustment issues. Employment levels from CPS should not be compared across years due to population control discontinuities—this is per explicit BLS guidance.
Authors
As a progressive strategist and organization builder, my passion lies in unlocking the potential of great people to thrive in a crowded landscape. LUD does just that.
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